Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 12.427904 14.514541 16.797469 19.474357 22.520652 25.872751 29.833711
2024-10-27 9.099664 11.912158 15.299144 19.649224 25.055675 31.519240 39.793061
2024-11-03 7.502695 10.817580 15.142581 21.126314 29.105714 39.285005 53.141367
2024-11-10 6.214322 9.760080 14.722218 22.040332 32.396337 46.338115 66.293878
2024-11-17 5.247847 8.901416 14.343472 22.831086 35.473059 53.289076 79.888867
2024-11-24 4.283535 7.823499 13.418612 22.614704 36.975811 58.077791 90.806960
2024-12-01 3.413714 6.704537 12.214597 21.737699 37.290530 61.053882 99.234172
2024-12-08 2.768608 5.828507 11.239256 21.040139 37.721656 64.134476 107.947373
2024-12-15 2.380410 5.336389 10.825521 21.190615 39.482643 69.355417 120.287441
2024-12-22 2.001178 4.780494 10.200770 20.866102 40.367517 73.186799 130.644274
2024-12-29 1.842169 4.641517 10.327930 21.902663 43.687963 81.253029 148.434192
2025-01-05 1.637045 4.359909 10.128608 22.284984 45.846024 87.479789 163.541345
2025-01-12 1.430987 4.043838 9.831793 22.480508 47.755208 93.560418 179.094030
2025-01-19 1.251037 3.752188 9.544093 22.663385 49.671515 99.833043 195.498575
2025-01-26 1.199785 3.773758 9.947601 24.331338 54.638429 112.005942 223.207421
2025-02-02 1.108895 3.670827 10.050645 25.363762 58.426435 122.263908 248.117006
2025-02-09 1.018970 3.549833 10.090904 26.257562 62.004605 132.366492 273.366338
2025-02-16 0.880298 3.253585 9.654872 26.012380 63.168393 137.902292 290.423191
2025-02-23 0.728395 2.874815 8.942265 25.019715 62.616669 140.011842 301.071899
2025-03-02 0.609039 2.564408 8.350622 24.229810 62.411440 142.763884 313.090510
2025-03-09 0.541489 2.409769 8.156921 24.400205 64.374442 150.052029 334.450830
2025-03-16 0.465586 2.202070 7.774401 24.032659 65.052527 154.703386 350.797229
2025-03-23 0.443397 2.190558 7.967899 25.206363 69.464145 167.515368 384.402597